All Tournaments
Masters 1000Hard (Outdoor) · 128 draw

BNP Paribas Open

Indian Wells, CA
March 4 – March 15, 2026
Updated Mar 4, 2026, 5:12 PM

Title Winner Probabilities

1
Carlos Alcaraz
42.4%
+136
—
2
Jannik Sinner
35.2%
+184
—
3
Novak Djokovic
3.5%
+2766
—
4
Alexander Zverev
3.5%
+2795
—
5
Taylor Fritz
2.1%
+4541
—
6
Daniil Medvedev
2.0%
+4958
—
7
Ben Shelton
1.4%
+7092
—
8
Alex De Minaur
1.0%
+10217
—
9
Jack Draper
0.9%
+10698
—
10
Felix Auger Aliassime
0.8%
+12545
—
11
Jakub Mensik
0.8%
+12795
—
12
Learner Tien
0.8%
+12835
—
13
Lorenzo Musetti
0.7%
+13642
—
14
Arthur Fils
0.6%
+16073
—
15
Alexander Bublik
0.6%
+16310
—
16
Casper Ruud
0.4%
+22443
—

Quarter Analysis

Q1Top Quarter
SF Prob
Carlos Alcaraz
74%
Alex De Minaur
7%
Alexander Bublik
6%
Casper Ruud
4%
Q2Second Quarter
SF Prob
Novak Djokovic
28%
Taylor Fritz
21%
Daniil Medvedev
19%
Jack Draper
13%
Q3Third Quarter
SF Prob
Alexander Zverev
30%
Felix Auger Aliassime
13%
Lorenzo Musetti
13%
Arthur Fils
11%
Q4Bottom Quarter
SF Prob
Jannik Sinner
69%
Ben Shelton
8%
Learner Tien
6%
Jakub Mensik
6%

Full Draw — Round-by-Round Probabilities

#PlayerSeedQtrR64R32R16QFSFFW↓Odds
1Carlos Alcaraz—Q1100.094.589.382.273.862.742.4+136
128Jannik Sinner—Q4100.097.089.680.368.858.835.2+184
33Novak Djokovic—Q2100.083.867.047.228.39.13.5+2766
96Alexander Zverev—Q3100.079.261.545.330.110.33.5+2795
64Taylor Fritz—Q2100.087.663.137.121.26.22.1+4541
49Daniil Medvedev—Q2100.078.455.632.818.95.62.0+4958
97Ben Shelton—Q4100.078.047.530.18.24.71.4+7092
31Alex De Minaur—Q1100.061.545.129.86.73.21.0+10217
48Jack Draper—Q2100.074.354.126.612.93.10.9+10698
80Felix Auger Aliassime—Q3100.081.048.726.313.23.30.8+12545
112Jakub Mensik—Q4100.074.948.324.35.83.00.8+12795
104Learner Tien—Q4100.081.741.524.15.83.00.8+12835
65Lorenzo Musetti—Q3100.079.045.124.912.53.10.7+13642
72Arthur Fils—Q3100.078.542.923.211.32.70.6+16073
17Alexander Bublik—Q1100.074.555.328.95.72.40.6+16310
16Casper Ruud—Q1100.079.152.18.44.31.8<0.5+22443
73Andrey Rublev—Q3100.073.838.319.18.81.9<0.5+24500
120Tommy Paul—Q4100.071.042.17.73.71.8<0.5+24831
88Frances Tiafoe—Q3100.068.340.517.18.11.7<0.5+28512
29Sebastian Korda—Q177.234.123.514.42.81.2<0.5+31307
56Jiri Lehecka—Q2100.070.828.512.35.21.0<0.5+40550
81Flavio Cobolli—Q3100.062.731.411.74.90.9<0.5+59960
105Alejandro Davidovich Fokina—Q4100.061.728.211.32.00.9<0.5+60616
89Brandon Nakashima—Q3100.070.422.611.34.60.9<0.5+65863
57Ugo Humbert—Q2100.064.623.79.53.70.7<0.5+69538
113Karen Khachanov—Q4100.052.525.13.61.40.6<0.5+92321
25Cameron Norrie—Q1100.069.023.611.31.6<0.5<0.5+122750
9Valentin Vacherot—Q1100.063.228.33.41.4<0.5<0.5+134853
115Joao Fonseca—Q459.830.815.22.30.9<0.5<0.5+137074
37Hubert Hurkacz—Q271.942.513.05.81.9<0.5<0.5+169968
41Francisco Cerundolo—Q2100.065.324.37.82.4<0.5<0.5+161451
8Arthur Rinderknech—Q1100.060.45.22.30.9<0.5<0.5+246814
93Matteo Berrettini—Q366.416.18.64.11.6<0.5<0.5+232458
123Stefanos Tsitsipas—Q451.529.43.11.40.5<0.5<0.5+272380
24Luciano Darderi—Q1100.062.622.37.20.8<0.5<0.5+380128
60Alex Michelsen—Q277.831.79.33.00.9<0.5<0.5+375840
84Miomir Kecmanovic—Q375.732.514.14.41.6<0.5<0.5+299301
4Grigor Dimitrov—Q162.54.02.21.0<0.5<0.5<0.5+546348
40Corentin Moutet—Q2100.047.311.34.11.1<0.5<0.5+480669
45Fabian Marozsan—Q267.720.210.83.41.0<0.5<0.5+413123
108Marin Cilic—Q454.421.88.02.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+584695
110Marcos Giron—Q468.320.08.62.6<0.5<0.5<0.5+609656
121Tomas Martin Etcheverry—Q4100.043.73.71.4<0.5<0.5<0.5+534659
124Denis Shapovalov—Q448.527.02.81.2<0.5<0.5<0.5+427250
6Botic Van De Zandschulp—Q167.030.32.30.9<0.5<0.5<0.5+1030828
11Nuno Borges—Q164.526.810.00.9<0.5<0.5<0.5+934479
19Michael Zheng—Q158.516.58.82.7<0.5<0.5<0.5+1249900
35Kamil Majchrzak—Q251.38.53.81.3<0.5<0.5<0.5+1960684
51Alejandro Tabilo—Q246.59.53.71.1<0.5<0.5<0.5+1587202
52Rafael Jodar—Q253.512.15.21.60.5<0.5<0.5+793551
54Sebastian Baez—Q266.522.45.91.7<0.5<0.5<0.5+1098801
76Gabriel Diallo—Q357.916.65.31.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+1922977
85Jenson Brooksby—Q358.520.38.92.60.9<0.5<0.5+671041
92Martin Damm—Q367.723.14.81.6<0.5<0.5<0.5+1666567
99Reilly Opelka—Q450.711.33.71.3<0.5<0.5<0.5+1922977
100Ethan Quinn—Q449.310.73.51.1<0.5<0.5<0.5+1999900
107Zachary Svajda—Q445.616.55.51.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+1562400
116Raphael Collignon—Q440.216.76.70.8<0.5<0.5<0.5+877093
117Zizou Bergs—Q455.617.36.90.7<0.5<0.5<0.5+1315689
2Bye—Q1<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
3Terence Atmane—Q137.51.60.7<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+7142757
5Juan Manuel Cerundolo—Q133.09.4<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
7Bye—Q1<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
10Bye—Q1<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
12Emilio Nava—Q135.510.02.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+14285614
13Alexander Shevchenko—Q147.19.43.1<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+49999900
14Sho Shimabukuro—Q152.911.54.1<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+11111011
15Bye—Q1<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
18Bye—Q1<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
20Arthur Cazaux—Q141.59.14.11.0<0.5<0.5<0.5+5263058
21Francesco Maestrelli—Q150.018.74.81.1<0.5<0.5<0.5+7142757
22Rinky Hijikata—Q150.018.74.81.1<0.5<0.5<0.5+4545355
23Bye—Q1<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
26Bye—Q1<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
27Matteo Arnaldi—Q142.911.92.00.6<0.5<0.5<0.5+16666567
28Mackenzie Mcdonald—Q157.119.24.01.3<0.5<0.5<0.5+3703604
30Francisco Comesana—Q122.84.31.80.6<0.5<0.5<0.5+8333233
32Bye—Q1<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
34Bye—Q2<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
36Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard—Q248.67.73.31.1<0.5<0.5<0.5+2222122
38Aleksandar Kovacevic—Q228.110.11.6<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+19999900
39Bye—Q2<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
42Bye—Q2<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
43Valentin Royer—Q242.913.42.90.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+14285614
44Benjamin Bonzi—Q257.121.35.81.3<0.5<0.5<0.5+2631479
46Roberto Bautista Agut—Q232.35.52.0<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+24999900
47Bye—Q2<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
50Bye—Q2<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
53Chun Hsin Tseng—Q233.66.81.1<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+24999900
55Bye—Q2<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
58Bye—Q2<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
59Daniel Merida Aguilar—Q222.23.7<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
61Jacob Fearnley—Q255.07.32.2<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+24999900
62Damir Dzumhur—Q245.05.11.3<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+49999900
63Bye—Q2<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
66Bye—Q3<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
67Marton Fucsovics—Q354.312.13.51.0<0.5<0.5<0.5+2702603
68Christopher Oconnell—Q345.78.82.30.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+14285614
69Dino Prizmic—Q372.618.45.61.6<0.5<0.5<0.5+2325481
70Tristan Schoolkate—Q327.43.20.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+99999900
71Bye—Q3<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
74Bye—Q3<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
75Mattia Bellucci—Q342.19.62.50.6<0.5<0.5<0.5+9999900
77Gael Monfils—Q359.712.83.91.0<0.5<0.5<0.5+5882253
78Alexis Galarneau—Q340.36.31.4<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+24999900
79Bye—Q3<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
82Bye—Q3<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
83Daniel Altmaier—Q324.34.70.9<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+49999900
86Alexei Popyrin—Q341.511.44.11.0<0.5<0.5<0.5+3448176
87Bye—Q3<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
90Bye—Q3<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
91Camilo Ugo Carabelli—Q332.36.50.7<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
94Adrian Mannarino—Q333.64.71.80.6<0.5<0.5<0.5+6666567
95Bye—Q3<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
98Bye—Q4<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
101Quentin Halys—Q462.113.03.00.8<0.5<0.5<0.5+4999900
102Adam Walton—Q437.95.30.9<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
103Bye—Q4<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
106Bye—Q4<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
109Mariano Navone—Q431.75.11.4<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+49999900
111Bye—Q4<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
114Bye—Q4<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
118Jan Lennard Struff—Q444.411.74.0<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+4545355
119Bye—Q4<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
122Bye—Q4<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
125Dalibor Svrcina—Q466.52.40.7<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5+49999900
126James Duckworth—Q433.50.7<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A
127Bye—Q4<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5<0.5N/A

Probabilities shown as percentages. Click column headers to sort.