All Tournaments37%25%19%18%31%29%25%15%60%31%9%0%56%32%7%5%
ATP 500Hard (Indoor) · 16 draw
Dallas Open
Dallas, USA
February 9 – February 15, 2026
Updated Feb 11, 2026, 11:19 PM
Title Winner Probabilities
#
Player
Win Probability
Title Odds
Seed
1
Ben Shelton
25.6%
+291
—
2
Taylor Fritz
14.3%
+599
—
3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
13.0%
+669
—
4
Tommy Paul
10.6%
+841
—
5
Sebastian Korda
7.3%
+1275
—
6
Denis Shapovalov
5.7%
+1663
—
7
Frances Tiafoe
4.8%
+1999
—
8
Brandon Nakashima
4.7%
+2031
—
9
Eliot Spizzirri
4.2%
+2298
—
10
Marin Cilic
4.0%
+2377
—
11
Ethan Quinn
2.9%
+3303
—
12
Qualifier1
1.0%
+9747
—
13
Miomir Kecmanovic
0.9%
+11027
—
14
Aleksandar Kovacevic
0.6%
+16079
—
15
Adrian Mannarino
0.4%
+24591
—
16
Alex Michelsen
0.0%
N/A
—
Quarter Analysis
Q1Top Quarter
SF ProbTaylor Fritz
Sebastian Korda
Frances Tiafoe
Brandon Nakashima
Q2Second Quarter
SF ProbEliot Spizzirri
Marin Cilic
Ethan Quinn
Qualifier1
Q3Third Quarter
SF ProbAlejandro Davidovich Fokina
Denis Shapovalov
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Alex Michelsen
Q4Bottom Quarter
SF ProbBen Shelton
Tommy Paul
Miomir Kecmanovic
Adrian Mannarino
Full Draw — Round-by-Round Probabilities
| # | Player | Seed | Qtr | QF | SF | F | W↓ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Ben Shelton | — | Q4 | 83.8 | 55.8 | 38.2 | 25.6 | +291 |
| 1 | Taylor Fritz | — | Q1 | 61.9 | 37.3 | 26.4 | 14.3 | +599 |
| 12 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | — | Q3 | 100.0 | 59.9 | 25.1 | 13.0 | +669 |
| 13 | Tommy Paul | — | Q4 | 71.9 | 32.3 | 18.8 | 10.6 | +841 |
| 3 | Sebastian Korda | — | Q1 | 54.3 | 25.0 | 15.8 | 7.3 | +1275 |
| 9 | Denis Shapovalov | — | Q3 | 68.3 | 31.3 | 11.9 | 5.7 | +1663 |
| 4 | Frances Tiafoe | — | Q1 | 45.7 | 19.2 | 11.3 | 4.8 | +1999 |
| 2 | Brandon Nakashima | — | Q1 | 38.1 | 18.4 | 11.0 | 4.7 | +2031 |
| 6 | Eliot Spizzirri | — | Q2 | 61.9 | 31.3 | 11.7 | 4.2 | +2298 |
| 8 | Marin Cilic | — | Q2 | 52.9 | 29.2 | 11.1 | 4.0 | +2377 |
| 7 | Ethan Quinn | — | Q2 | 47.1 | 24.7 | 8.8 | 2.9 | +3303 |
| 5 | Qualifier1 | — | Q2 | 38.1 | 14.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +9747 |
| 14 | Miomir Kecmanovic | — | Q4 | 28.1 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | +11027 |
| 10 | Aleksandar Kovacevic | — | Q3 | 31.7 | 8.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | +16079 |
| 15 | Adrian Mannarino | — | Q4 | 16.2 | 4.7 | 1.4 | <0.5 | +24591 |
| 11 | Alex Michelsen | — | Q3 | <0.5 | <0.5 | <0.5 | <0.5 | N/A |
Probabilities shown as percentages. Click column headers to sort.